A Self-Fulfilling Prophesy: Oklahoma's Loss is the Big XII's Win

I originally posted this comment in response to David Ubben’s Nov. 14th Big-12 Blog post, Oklahoma State last road block to rematch. I am now convinced that my logic holds true. Oklahoma is currently trailing Oklahoma State, 41–3. This is not the Oklahoma team that I have been watching all season. This is not the Oklahoma team that has beat Oklahoma State for the last eight years. There is a greater incentive for Oklahoma to lose rather than to win this game.

Ubben,

If your logic holds true—that Oklahoma State is the last road block to a rematch—then what incentive is there for the Sooners to even try to beat the Cowboys? Is there not more of an incentive to let Oklahoma State win at Bedlam if, no matter what, Oklahoma is not a second-to-“last roadblock to a rematch”? Surely that can't be the case. Brad Edwards, the BCS “guru,” says that Oklahoma’s loss to Texas Tech is all but impossible to overcome. But are you really convinced that Oklahoma State is the only roadblock to there being a rematch between LSU and Alabama in the National Championship Game? It seems like a futile game to be played between a number 2 team (then-Oklahoma State) and a number 5 team (then-Oklahoma) if Oklahoma knocking off Oklahoma State would not put Oklahoma in the National Championship Game. But Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma would surely put Oklahoma State in the NCG. 

Oregon beat a #4 team and a #18 team. Alabama has not beaten a single top 10 team but rather has beaten teams ranked #23, #14, and #12. LSU beat a #3 team and a #2 team (plus #25, #16, #17 and #20). OSU beat a #8 team (plus #22 and #14). Oklahoma beat teams ranked #5, #8, and #11 (plus it plays #22 Baylor on Saturday). 

When Oklahoma plays Oklahoma State (assuming Oregon, Alabama, and Oklahoma win out their next two games) logic would indicate that—having beat #22 Baylor— a win over #2 Oklahoma State would launch Oklahoma ahead of 2 spots. That kind of win over Oklahoma State has to be worth more than Alabama merely managing not to lose to (somehow, #24) Auburn. Or Oregon managing not to lose to Oregon State. 

Otherwise, Oklahoma is better off letting Oklahoma State win—just to ensure that no rematches take place. OSU playing in the NCG is better for the Big XII than neither OU nor OSU playing in the NCG.

The entire Sports Media is seeing a self-fulfilling prophesy. I don’t know how many articles I have read over the past three weeks that all seemed to say, “Unless Oklahoma State has a HUGE win over Oklahoma, there will be an LSU–Alabama rematch.” Well, Sports Media, Oklahoma heard you loud and clear. While Oklahoma State is a fantastic team (and well deserving of the win tonight) Oklahoma is definitely not this bad of a team. Oklahoma is taking one for the Big XII—ensuring that the Sports Media’s love fest with the SEC does not come to fruition.  

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Update: 12/3/2011 at 12:38am MT

Final Score: Oklahoma State 44, Oklahoma 10

Oklahoma State is very deserving of the win. My argument is that the media's love fest with Alabama and LSU had more to do with this completely uneven, blowout game than did Oklahoma State's superiority or Oklahoma's inferiority.

I have received a few questions so I will clarify my position.

Q1: Why would OU lose out on BCS bowl money, on purpose, for the sake of a conference that hasn’t done them any favors this season?

A1: It was my understanding that the remaining members of the Big 12 recently agreed to sign over their individual Tier 1 and Tier 2 television revenue to trust, allowing greater profit sharing across the board. Bowl Game Revenue and Football Championship Event Revenue are already divided equally among the members (after the team who plays in the bowl is allowed reimbursement for expenses). The following are the relevant sections from the Big 12 Conference Handbook:

§ 2.3 Revenue Distribution.  [T]he revenue distribution policy for the Conference shall be as provided in this Section 2.

§ 2.4 Bowl Game Revenue.  All revenue from Member Institutions participating in football bowl games shall be divided equally among all Member Institutions, after predetermined expense allowances have been deducted. The formula set forth as Appendix [IV] shall be used to calculate the predetermined expense allowances and is incorporated herein by reference as through fully set forth.

§ 2.5 Football Championship Event Revenue.  All net revenue pursuant to the Conference football championship game and related activities will be divided equally among the Member Institutions.

Appendix IV

Bowl Game Policies

Expense Formula:

The following institutional expense allowances will be provided for bowl participants:

Tier I:  Bowl Championship Series

National Championship Game

Expenses .................................................. $1,630,000

Travel .............................................$300/one-way mi

All other Bowl Championship Series Games

Expenses .................................................. $1,610,000

Travel .............................................$300/one-way mi

Tier II: Cotton, Alamo, Insight, Holiday, Pinstripe

Expenses .................................................... 1,000,000

Travel .............................................$300/one-way mi

Tier III: Texas, TicketCity, Military (or substitute bowl)

Expenses ..................................................... $680,000

Travel .............................................$300/one-way mi

Participating Member Institutions retain any “incidental” revenue provided by a bowl, including the value of complimentary sleeping rooms (e.g., transportation, meals, etc.) on top of the expense allowance for such bowl.  Member Institutions participating in a bowl game are not responsible for the Conference’s guaranteed purchase of tickets to the bowl; however, they will be permitted to retain one-half (1/2) of the revenue from the sale of tickets in excess of one-half (1/2) of the Conference guarantee.

Q2: So you think that OU threw the game?

A2: I am not saying that OU went into the game with the express purpose of playing poorly and letting OSU win (i.e., “throwing the game”). I’m saying that the Sports Media created a self-fulfilling prophesy (explained satisfactorily on Wikipedia), which was the main reason that this game was not a closely competitive matchup like it should have been. Both teams were extremely influenced by the psychological ramifications of the event, which significantly changed their behavior (compared to all other games they have played this season). OSU got a huge psychological boost from the media effectively saying that the whole nation would be forced to watch a rematch if OSU did not win big. And Oklahoma took a major psychological hit by knowing that beating OSU would mean an SEC rematch for the National Championship.